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Saturday, November 21, 2009

Not Every Middle East Problem involves Israel

Iran is routing weapons to Yemen Rebels via Eritrea.  Saudi Arabia is opposed to this kind of thing.

My source, the People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran website, is not The New York Times, but it is a source   They are opposed to the current Iranian government.

The reason this is interesting is two-fold.

First there is the fact that a Saudi Arabian engagement in open warfare with Iran would not be good for the world oil markets.  Thus, it would not be good for the rest of us if they get into a dustup.

Secondly, some argue that we will only get into long term trouble if we neglect Yemen and its problems, like Andrew Exum and Richard Fontaine, from the Center for a New American Security.

But, should we really care?  Is this in America's vital interest?

And, here is a contrarian view, from an independent reporter:
The Yemeni rebels are not Shiite, they are Zaidi and the Yemeni government is not Sunni, in fact the president himself is Zaidi.  Zaidis are an offshoot of Shiism but are very far removed from them and in some ways have more in common with sunnis than they do with Shiites the conflict in Yemen is not between Sunnis and Shiites at all, and there is no Iranian role, but the Yemeni government is blaming al Qaeda, Iran and anybody else they can find for what is an internal conflict, but that blame helps them get support from the Americans and the Saudis
This reporter forgot to mention that they are often Fivers, rather than Twelver Muslims.

And we don't have forces to spare for this problem, other than Air and Naval forces.  If we did have ground forces to apply to this problem there are a whole bunch of other requirements out there.

But, if it comes to a Saudi-Iranian dustup, there is the oil to worry about.

This is why doing foreign policy is so hard.

Regards  —  Cliff

2 comments:

Jack Mitchell said...

"We will pay now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ... or we will pay the price later in military terms and that will involve human lives." - General Anthony Zinni
http://www.operationfree.net/home/
.........................
America is addicted to foreign oil.
It's an addiction that threatens our economy, our environment and our national security. It touches every part of our daily lives and ties our hands as a nation and as a people.

The addiction has worsened for decades and now it's reached a point of crisis.

In 1970, we imported 24% of our oil.
Today, it's more than 65% and growing. - PickensPlan
http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan/

PS. The Earth is not flat.

C R Krieger said...

Granted that America is addicted to foreign oil.  As is Europe.  As is China.

As for the Earth not being flat, I at first thought that was a jibe at Tom Friedman and then thought it was a comment on all those scientists out on the fringe of scientific discovery, doing their political thing to win recognition for their particular ideas.  Then I clicked on the link.

For sure we need to go with the Pickens Plan.  But, it won't be enough.  And, it means a big investment in power lines and in the secure control of the routing of that electricity.

Regards  —  Cliff